Spoiler alert: Housing affordability isn’t as simple as the headlines make it sound.
Depending on who you ask, the real issue isn’t just home prices, or even the number of homes on the market. It’s about access. It’s about opportunity. And most of all, it’s about what affordable really means for the people trying to buy.
So, what does affordability look like here in Tennessee? And where do you actually stand a chance of finding the right home at the right price?
Let’s break it down.
Inventory Crisis or Access Crisis?
If you’ve been following the national conversation, you’ve probably heard a lot about the “housing shortage.” But two of the most well-known names in real estate data—Logan Mohtashami and Ivy Zelman—have different takes on what’s really going on.
Ivy Zelman’s Take: The Problem Is Accessibility, Not Just Supply
If you haven’t heard of Ivy Zelman before, just know that she predicted the 2008 housing bubble nearly three years before it burst. When it comes to the housing market today, she argues that the real challenge isn’t a lack of homes, it’s a lack of affordable homes.
She makes the point that it doesn’t matter how many houses are on the market if most people can’t swing the monthly payment.
In a recent webinar, Zelman said:
“You could talk as much as you want about how many units might be short, but if you can’t offer, whether it be a rental unit at less than a thousand a month or the mortgage payment at a thousand dollars a month, who really cares?
Her example hits home: young adults graduating from college today often can’t even afford to rent their own place, let alone buy. So while there may be homes available, there’s a gap between what’s out there and what buyers can realistically afford.
Logan Mohtashami’s Take: Affordability Has Always Been a Challenge
Housing market analyst Logan Mohtashami brings a historical view to the conversation, asking:
“When was housing ever affordable?”
He points out that home prices have gone up during nearly every major period of inflation, from the 1940s to the 1970s to the recent pandemic years. According to Logan, waiting for prices to drop dramatically isn’t a strategy. It’s wishful thinking.
And yet, millions of people still buy homes every year. He says the way most buyers make homeownership work is by combining incomes, being flexible about location, or adjusting their expectations on size or features.
How Does Tennessee Compare?
While national experts debate the “why,” Realtor.com recently looked at the numbers to grade each state on how well they’re handling housing affordability and homebuilding.
Their State Report Cards evaluate two affordability metrics and two new construction metrics:
- REALTORS® Affordability Score: 25%
- Median earner’s share of income spent on median-priced listing (ranked low to high): 25%
- Permit-to-population ratio: 40%
- New-construction premium (ranked low to high): 10%
Some key takeaways from their findings: Southern and Midwestern states tend to score higher on affordability. Western and Northeastern states, on the other hand, often struggle more, thanks to higher prices and tougher building restrictions.
In addition, only 18 states can claim that their median home is affordable for their median earner (using the standard that housing costs should not exceed 30% of household income).
So, where does Tennessee fall? Tennessee earned a C with a median list price above the national average at $433,987, which keeps us at #25 overall nationwide.
What Housing Affordability Looks Like in Our Community
Statewide scores are helpful, but the real story is what’s happening right here in our community.
First-time homebuyers in Nashville are increasingly turning to neighborhoods like Antioch, Madison, and Bordeaux, where affordability meets opportunity. Antioch, for instance, has become one of the city’s fastest-growing areas, with the 37013 ZIP code recording the highest number of home sales last year. Madison’s 37115 ZIP code follows closely, boasting a median home price of $345,000, significantly below the city’s median of $500,000. These neighborhoods not only offer more budget-friendly options but are also experiencing infrastructure developments, such as new transit centers and housing projects, enhancing their appeal to first-time buyers .
To assist with the financial aspects of purchasing a home, Tennessee offers several programs tailored for first-time buyers. The Tennessee Housing Development Agency (THDA) provides the Great Choice Home Loan program, offering 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with down payment assistance. Eligible buyers can receive up to 5% of the home’s purchase price to cover down payments and closing costs. Additionally, the Homeownership for Heroes program offers a 0.5% interest rate reduction for military personnel, veterans, and first responders . Beyond state programs, organizations like The Housing Fund offer loans up to $35,000 to assist with down payments and closing costs, making homeownership more accessible .
In the current market, creative financing solutions are gaining traction. Builders are offering incentives like 2-1 rate buydowns, which lower mortgage payments for the first two years, easing the initial financial burden on buyers . Opting for smaller homes or townhouses is another strategy, allowing buyers to enter the market at a lower price point while still building equity. Moreover, exploring up-and-coming neighborhoods can provide more value for money, as these areas often have lower prices and potential for appreciation as they develop.
As Nashville’s housing market evolves, first-time buyers who are flexible and informed about available programs and neighborhood trends are finding pathways to homeownership. By leveraging financial assistance programs and considering emerging neighborhoods, they can navigate the market more effectively and secure homes that fit their budgets and lifestyles.
The Good News: There Are Paths Forward
Yes, home prices have gone up. Yes, mortgage rates are a factor. But that doesn’t mean your dream of homeownership is out of reach.
Here’s how buyers in our area are making it happen:
- Getting clear on their budget early (before falling in love with homes outside their price range)
- Exploring different financing options (like adjustable-rate loans, first-time buyer grants, or rate buydown programs)
- Staying flexible on location or home features to find the right fit at the right price
If you’re curious about what’s possible for you in today’s market, or just want to understand where the best opportunities are right now, call me for the latest local information.
